Great points, Dave. I used the S&P 500 for this analysis just because it made things so much more simple and I didn’t have to compile as much historical data. For most retirees, bonds will be part of their portfolios, at least for the first few years of retirement to fend off potential market downturns.

Thanks for the feedback!

Thanks, Sean! I wrote a follow up post that shows how “less than 25 times expenses” portfolios have performed over time, be sure to check that out!

I don’t blame you. It’s good to have more cash and less volatile investments in the first few years of retirement to fend off market crashes in those first few years. Based on most studies, if you can maintain your portfolio value in the first 5-10 years of retirement, your portfolio will survive virtually indefinitely.

Exactly! These results are specifically for a portfolio invested 100% in stocks, so adding bonds/cash to the mix, especially in the first few years of retirement could increase the survival rate of a portfolio, especially when the first few years experience negative returns.

The withdrawals were taken out at the beginning of the year, which makes these numbers conservative.

Thank you!

Awesome, I’ll check it out!